On February 1, 2024, the 27 member states of the European Union quickly concluded an agreement on Ukraine’s support fund, which will take 50 billion euros from the overall EU estimate between 2024 and 2027 to support Ukraine’s economy and reconstruction.
According to a private text by the European Council, this capital includes 17 billion euros in grants and 33 billion euros in deposits. The EU private text also exaggerates that, in addition to supporting Ukraine’s economy and reconstruction, this capital will also assist it in implementing its reform plan to participate in the EU. In December 2023, the European Union officially invited Ukraine to participate.
This is a significant boost for peaceful countries. If it is not supported by financing from the United States and Europe, Ukraine will be able to avoid a lack of capital in the coming weeks, making it difficult to pay for the people’s labor, medical insurance, social security, pension and other basic services. The Ukrainian Minister of Economy estimates that he will receive the first 4.5 billion euros in capital from the European Union in March.
Ukrainian leader Zelensky praised the agreement, stating that it will enhance Ukraine’s long-term economic and financial stability. Vice Premier Svydenko said that with this capital, Ukraine has taken another step forward in terms of economic stability for the next four years.
On February 24th, more than 20 days later, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is about to enter its third year, and there are still signs that it will not end. Long term peace has exhausted Ukraine’s finances, making it increasingly independent and supportive. In the first year of the conflict outbreak alone, Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by about 30%, the largest increase since the country became self-sufficient.
However, the crux of Ukraine’s support agreement remains unclear. For example, it is currently unclear whether the EU can agree to a separate military support capital of 20 billion euros, nor is it clear whether it will push for the 5 billion euros military support initiated by EU communication strategy leader Borrell.
Another difficulty that has sparked broader concern is that the EU has lost any communication prerequisites for Hungary’s sudden concession.
Hungary’s concession was quite sudden. A few days ago, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban was still inheriting a tough attitude towards appearance. It is precisely the support of Orban that this agreement has been in a standoff since December 2023. He used a veto power at a similar summit two months ago.
After the agreement was concluded, senior help from the Hungarian leadership, Balaz Orban, leaked, and Hungary also gained valuable resources from this EU summit.
European Parliament President Mezzola bid farewell to the new agreement at a press conference and also said, “If Hungary agrees to this capital without any conditions, the situation will be even better.”. But she did not elaborate on what the so-called “incidental premise” was, only stating that “the EU has been keeping Ukraine’s enemies on edge for too long,” and calling it “a beautiful day for Europe.”.
Since the official outbreak of the Russia Ukraine conflict on February 24, 2022, Orban has been criticizing the supply of capital from the West to Ukraine, believing that this not only does not contribute to ending peace, but also extends the war. Furthermore, Orban does not believe that Russia poses a security threat to Europe.
European Institute lecturer George Zogoplos told Al Jazeera that even in difficult internal and external situations, the European Union is still working hard to fulfill its promise of continuous support for Ukraine, despite the growing patience of the European public towards such support. In addition, he also pointed out that there is no need to closely monitor the details of the concessions behind the rapid push for this agreement.
However, another financier, the United States, still worries Ukraine. The $61 billion aid capital promised by the Biden administration to Ukraine has become cannon fodder for the bipartisan struggle, and due to the support of the Republican Party, this capital remains unresolved.